| Obama | McCain |
| 98.5% probability of winning | 1.4% probability of winning |
| Mean of 295 electoral votes | Mean of 243 electoral votes |
Remember our bet .. BHO will take texas!
As one indicator .. look at NC, 47.4 52.6. That is very close and uggests that NC will b4e determined by turnout.
Texas numbers grossly do not look as good, but 41.6/58.4 may well not reflect what I expect will be a successful effort by BHO to turn the Chicano (as opposed to Hispanic vote). My guess is that this is easy to do by supporting a rational immigration policy, something McCain simply can nto afford to do w/o losing base.
IMO McC does have one throw at turning this and that is running a Whitman (he has two), Hutchinson, or Fierriena(sp?) as VEEP.
As fems, any of these would immediately counterbalance BHO's standing as an icon of change and, two of them have business cred that might very well appeal to middle class whites who are rightfully concerned about erosion of their jobs. Imagine a natiobal campaign built arounf McCain,and Whitman with strong support from Schwarznegger, Balmer (can he be outed?), and such folks, themed as "New Republicans."
One reason I think this theme may be MCcS's only choice is that I find it hard to imjagine any other dems functioning as suurogates for the Arizonian. Bush's rep are pretty beaten up. The few ho still look respectable, Jindal, Huckabee, and Ro9mney all have baggage that narrows their appeal. The only way McC can sell hinmself is by going outside of tradional Rep barriers. I will leave the CoonecticutYid out of this as I think he has the same issues as the other three just metnioned .. a very narrow appeal.
The only argument I have heard against this fem strategy is from libruls who think the believers will not vote for a pro-choice candidate. My bet is that there is enough wiggle in HOW one defines choice and that the general availability of birth control pills has erased this as a mjor middle class female concern.
MC's other alternatives are to hope for a deus ex machina goof by BHO ... something so far does not seem likely .... or an Iranian effort to elect him rather than BHO as in the Reagan:Carter race. Frankly, I am not sure the Iranians would want McC. He is not an idiot like Raygun or Bush.
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