Darryl (from Hominid Views) and I have had a debate about how far along and what the intent may be of the Iranian nuke effort. I hope he has a chance to look at this al Jazeera piece. El Baradei has been right before!
The obvious issue is the Regency, that is the current caretaker government in DC has no credibility. As for "our side," KOS and its ilk are so blindly peacenik that they may drive the candidates away form rational discussion of the alternatives.
The current situation reminds me all to much of the wind up to WWI ... this time with far bigger consequences. A follow-on piece in the NYT is worth reading as well.
The bottom line is that the Iranians have a brilliant strategy that should lead them to becoming a nuclear power within l2ss than 10 years. Bush, having wasted his resources, seems powerless.
2 comments:
Hey SeattleJew,
I've responded here.
Cheers,
Darryl
I responded at Darryl's blog but will also post here:
I agree with Darryl that the threat form Iran is not imminent and that
Bush et al squandered America's reputation as a trustworthy source.
Where we disagree is about how far Iran can go before there is aneed to intervene. Iran probably can not secretly get from where they are now to nuclear power status in a reasonable time. That said,
In contrast Iran is more successful in support of shia political parties than the Soviet Union ever was in its support for the Comintern. The Iranians are evangelical to the point of being willing to use both conventional and unconventional means to spread their system.
The Iranian form of Islam, originated by Khomeini, includes the unique (for Islam) idea of central theocratic authority roughly comparable to the papacy. Such authority has not existed in Islam since the time of the Prophet himself. Again the self righteous authority of the militant popes, Stalin, Napoleon, or Bush come to mind.
Iran's ideology espouses a system of domination over others, especially others following "false" Islamic precepts and they have shown a willingness to use military means to effect their goals.
Iran has substantial existing technology for delivery of nuclear weapons.
Existing Sunni Islamic governments are unstable.
Put this together, imagine yourself in the year 2015 or even before then. It is reasonable to expect that Saudi Arabia will be on the brink of the inevitable collision of demographics and declining oil supplies. Egypt will be shambles due to uncontrolled population growth and lack of a functional system of government. Pakistan will still be a nuclear armed mess without a stable government. Afghanistan and Iraq will be at best occupied protectorates ... perhaps with Turkey, Iran, Russia and China leavening the US malfeasance.
Now imagine an Islamic version of Napoleon, Mussolini, or Stalin. We might even think of Attaturk. Just for fun, call this leader Umar ben Ali. (Umar being the first great Muslim conquer to spread Islam outside of Arabia and Ali the ancestral founder of Shia. )
In 2015, Iran has functional nuclear plants with an enrichment schedule. They have ... like modern Japan, Brazil of Germany ... the capability of joining the nuclear power club by ocnverting civilian technology to military and can do so in a year or two at will.
Is there anything unlikely about this scenario?
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