FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: "Road to 270: Pennsylvania

Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Keystone State, Pennsylvania.

THE REPUBLICAN WHITE WHALE, Pennsylvania will give its 21 electoral votes to Barack Obama. Despite relentlessly wider public polling margins, Republicans argue that they are in a position to lose the state by 6 points, which is a 140% bigger margin than when John Kerry won the state in 2004. Even Michael Barone knows John McCain won't win the state, bitterly complaining that

The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.

Oh, Waah! Sounds like an elitist bitterly complaining that the voters are too dumb to realize what's good for 'em, huh? Don't be a poopy-pants, Mike, the Obama ground operation is just a bunch of 'thug' kids waving signs. I mean, you wrote it, it must be true."

Here is the beginning of my post. And here is the rest of it.