Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Huffington

Tom Edsall>>Another White Guy Election

APRIL 22: Not to be outdone, Insider Advantage has also released a final poll showing Hillary maintaining the lead in the PA primary:

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 9%

APRIL 22: Today is the primary, and Zogby has released a final Pennsylvania poll showing Hillary opening up her lead slightly:

Hillary Clinton: 51%

Barack Obama: 41%
Undecided: 6%

APRIL 21: With the Pennsylvania primary a day away, a slew of polls have come out predicting tomorrow's returns. Here is the collection, with a few observations below:


Zogby Poll

Hillary Clinton: 48%

Barack Obama: 42%


Suffolk Poll
Hillary Clinton: 52%

Barack Obama: 42%


Quinnipac Poll
Hillary Clinton: 51%

Barack Obama: 44%


SurveyUSA Poll
Hillary Clinton: 50%

Barack Obama: 44%


PPP Poll (pdf)

Hillary Clinton: 46%

Barack Obama: 49%


Rasmussen Poll
Hillary Clinton: 49%

Barack Obama: 44%

First to note is that the race has tightened significantly over the past few weeks, but that most polls are reflecting a healthy, single-point margin for Clinton. SurveyUSA shows a six-point lead for Clinton, which is line with other polls, but is their closest result in weeks (SurveyUSA has, generally, had one of the best overall track records during the election season). Also worth noting is that Zogby's day tracking polls show a wider margin than this weekend, suggesting that late-deciding voters may be breaking for Clinton (another trend we have seen for most of the cycle).

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