from HominidViews
Thursday, April 3, 2008 at 11:18 pm
| Obama | McCain |
| 40.7% probability of winning | 57.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 264 electoral votes | Mean of 274 electoral votes |
Yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama had a 29% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. And that was a dramatic improvement for Obama—up from a 10% probability earlier in the week. Today there was a new poll released in New Jersey, that favors Obama in his match-up against McCain.
Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 4,073 times (plus the 214 ties), and McCain wins 5,713 times. Obama has a 40.7% (plus 2.1% for ties) probability of beating McCain, and McCain has a 57.1% probability of winning.
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