I recommend the ongoing poll analysis by Darryl at Hominid Views. He uses polling data from across the US to create a meta analysis of how the presidential election would come out if held today, between a specific Rep and specific Dem.
I am sure that Darryl will tell you it is far too soon o take such polls seriously though it is fun that every analysis show the probability of any likely Dem beating any likely Rep by a huge level of significance .. in the 90 to 100% range!
What I find more interesting is the difference in the Obama maps vs. the other pairings. In this example, Barak beats Romney with a 100% certainty. More interesting, at this early time, is that Barak takes Texas!
I have seen a number of polls that suggest something like this. Obama is NOT "just{" the first African American candidate to vie for the Presidency, he is seen by many people as a very, very American candidate. I have seen polls where Republicans pick Barak as their favorite Dem! To many conservatives, this guy looks more like them than the Mormon or the Fundie Pastor.
If BO is the candidate, I predict a southern strategy. he may not win Texas but watch out for Virginia, Tennesee, North Carolina, and ... Georgia! Even if he does not win in those states, an effective presence will cost the Repoubs dollars they can not afford.
3 comments:
I think there is something to be said regarding Obama's appeal to conservatives. It is definitely real. Much of it has to also do with a sense that he has the ability to be the President of the United States of America, not just, as Bush has been, the President of the Divided States of America.
Let me use a different word than "ability". Perhaps "promise" or "potential" would be a better word.
In this case I would argue that perception IS reality. Reagan was in many ways a dister of a President. His one real stength was the ability ot make people proud. Obama seems to have that quality too.
I have many drams about what a BO Presidency might mean. One of those drams centers on December 2008. BO has been elcted and is putting together his cabinet, etc. Richardson is the VEEP and McCain has agreed to be SOD. Clark is at State and Bill Clinton has accepted the offer to become our ambassador to the UN.
BO invites the jefferson/helmsley clans to Monticello to celebrate the holiday together. The new President elect gives his too be famous speach, "Renewing the Dream." In the speach he invokes Jefferson's ideal of indiviual opporunity and talks about how the civil right movement meant the REAL fulfilm3nt of the theoird Prsident's goals of equal oportunity for all Americans.
Stimulates by the speach, the Gates Foundation announces that they are establishing the American Opportunity Endowment with a gift of 10 billion dollars. These fubnds would be given only to those Universities willing to provide free tuition to guarantee that any Merit finalist or Semifinalist will be able to attend without a need for a loan. Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, MIT, and several sate Universities also announce their willingness to s foregone tuition for these Americans.
Ans, as the Obamas, his new cabinet, the Jeffersons, the Helmsleys, sit down to a shared inner, the ghost of Tom smiles on his nation.
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